Re: Arizona Rep. Giffords shot, 6 killed in rampage
The reasons I have it sooner it sooner is as follows:
1) Celebrity. These days it's often who you are more than what you are. Obama was one and the Republicans could easily turn to someone they think people will feel comfortable with. Put a strong moderate behind her in VP and you have yourself a solid ticket that the right and religious right can get behind. It is somewhat similar to what they did with Bush, but Chenny was the other way.
2) The Arizona Shooting. This is a make or break reason, but Palin has to respond after her previous attacks. To to this, she needs to play to a broad audience. With the proper message (which will probably be prime time), she could effectively broaden her appeal with impunity. They are working on it, just depends which way they'll go.
3) Simplicity of message + Anger in America. Palin just boils things down so simply, the true arguments and complexities in every situation disappear and everything becomes yes no, and in that fight, Obama would complicate himself or be put off kilter when Palin is so simple she would not waiver. With the general public, that could resonate. (it is also the reason that Palin would be a TERRIBLE leader in any sense of the word).
4) The now factor. The longer Palin and her cronies wait, the longer American has to get tired of her. Capitalized. Remember, they only need to win a few states, since the country is mostly divided already, to win the White House.
But, you also bring up the point that the Republicans do have Obama reeling that they may not need such a bombastic approach and let the country just deliver everything back to them (really - do the Americans in this forum realize how stupid that sounds?) without doing anything but resisting on everything Obama wants.