ask me anything

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/416386...deastn_africa/
Nice interactive feature at the bottom on page.




Democracy and justice are spreading. Fuck yeah!!!

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ninjalostboy95

Apparently everyone is growing a pair these days.

Mal

Bahrain's revolts will be in no way like Egypt's. The early, bloody crackdown is likely to not be the last. The US will continue to urge Bahrain to seek a peaceful resolution, but that is all they will do. Bahrain is too important of an ally, and plays too big a role in the US acquisition of oil from the Middle East.


On a more personal note, my cousin was living there with her Lebanese First Mate husband until recently when she found out she was pregnant. They decided to move back to Canada for the health care and citizenship.

Marlboro

I agree with this. The protests in Bahrain, Libya, Yemen etc. won't be the same as the protests that were in Egypt.

The reason is because- in Egypt, the government waited too long before they decided to do anything. Which is not the case in Bahrain right now. The moment the protests broke out, the police interfered. And since the police seem to be doing a good job on their own right now (bombing the people with tear gas, bullets etc.) the army would have no need to interfere.

The uprisings in Libya and Yemen are comparatively lesser than in Bahrain. It seems that all the Middle-Eastern countries that are not happy with the way that their government operates, are gonna plan a revolution. They watched Egypt pull it off and now they think that they can as well. Egypt was inspired by the uprising in Tunisia which had happened about two weeks ago from the Egyptian protest.

The reason why I think that the other countries won't pull off what Egypt pulled off, and they won't, is cuz in Egypt, the army joined forces with the civilians and helped them in the process. But I don't see that happening anywhere else. Unless the army is sick as well of their president.

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Nerox

That is false. There is no escalation of violence in Bahrain, unlike in Lybia.

The German media report that Gaddafi just had fighters attack a group of protesters. Eyewitnesses report that it was a massacre in the streets. And like I predicted, the Western states condemend the actions and warn Gaddafi to not let the violence escalate.

And the religious leaders as well as the most powerful arab tribes, which control the oil delivery, are rising up against Gaddafi as well. If the violence against the protesters does not stop, there will be a civil war, which will even top the riots in Egypt. Only a matter of time until most of the people will be armed...

Marlboro

Well, maybe so. But I think that the reaction from the Bahrain government is more than in Libya.

If the rebellion against Gaddafi in Libya grows, which I am sure it will- I don't think that Gaddafi would release the prisoners to go fight off the protesters like Hosni did. I think that Hosni's case should be an example to why it would fail hardly. I see Gaddafi packing his family and getting out of the country in the end.

And a civil war would just cause Libya more destruction after it's over. I am sure that the European or Western countries would try to control the markets and probably invade Libya in case of a civil war breaking out.

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Nerox

Yeah right, fighters bombarding streets and protesters, tanks and soldiers shooting at them, is far better than prisoners fighting the protesters.

Libya is a goddamn militaristic dictatorship, Gaddafi has more military at his disposal than prisoners. And soldier, heavy armed and equipped, are far "better" fighters than prisoners. And if the public is strong enough to continue fighting, eventually Gaddafi will be killed or flee the country, like I said before.

That is right, and I implied that in my opinion. And for you information, no European states would invade Libya to quell a civil war. And neither would the USA. If Gaddafi is defeated, I believe the military will seize the power and hopefully promise elections like in Egypt. The people of Libya have to deal with their problems by themselves, and foreign military is not really helping.

ask me anything

How do you think the crackdowns will play out now that international media is really taking notice? It seems the White House is already trying to intervene. Yesterday the military stood down and left the main cities over there. Will this embolden the protesters, and push their cause. Or will it frighten then since the government already allegedly assassinating dissidents and will do so even more once coverage to die down.

It seems protest all over the middle east have been surging since the start of the year. Most of it has been completely unreported by the American media until egypt just got too big to Ignore. I just wonder if this is the new "in thing" for the media now. Seems like every reporter has jumped on the Egyptian story by now, and others are scouring the globe for their next big scoop.

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Nerox

Libya seems to be next. Gaddafi has already regulated internet access and television, and it seems the military and police started shooting at protesters. It was also reported, that the first soldiers are rising up against the regime as well.

Gaddafi has always been a thorn in the side of the UN, so I believe we will hear sharp words against the regime in Libya, from all important gouvernment leaders. Unless Gaddafi is prepared to fight a very bloody civil war, in my opinion, he will be forced out of office in the next weeks.

ninjalostboy95

If these outbreaks continue, I believe the U.S and other nations will jump in to keep their "International relationship" intact with said countries because of their "International dependence." It may not happen, but it's possible.

Nerox

They have no legitimate reason to "jump in". The people are only fighting against a gouvernment they don't want anymore. And they aren't allowed to topple reigning regimes, well, not officially. There is war in so many countries/states and nobody cares, why should the international community invade any african/arab country? The only thing Europe, especially southern Europe has to ponder over, is the rising arrivals of fugitives. The oil will continue to flow, wheather under Gaddafi or another power.

ninjalostboy95

I didn't mean as in war or invasion, I meant as in politically, sorry for the confusion there.

ask me anything

I'm certain the US (Obama especially) will try to stay as far away from the situation as possible. Given the disapproval Obama has at the moment, and his ongoing attempt to regain political momentum, the last thing he needs is for himself to be linked to the Gaddafi Regime. People have a way of blowing things out of proportions, and making innocent shit into something it's not....like this picture, which was a simple handshake at a UN meeting, where Kaddafi serves on the Security Council.


Truth the told both Democrats and Republicans have made deals with Kaddafi in the past to keep the oil flowing. Neither side wants that shit to be brought up so both sides are keeping quite about it. The ONLY way we might intervene is if the violence spreads to neighboring countries or outside forces try to actively intervene in Libya. In the case of the later we might ignore that as long as they don't get caught doing it. More then likely the US will advocate for the UN peace keepers to intervene in order to keep their hands clean of the incident.

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ninjalostboy95

^Umm I think you're supposed to provide the reasons why they would invade Libya, not the other way around.

ninjalostboy95

Okay so the US is trying to keep the past secret and trying not to get involved to ensure that these past secret deals don't get exposed? A "Be involved only when necessary" type of situation? Okay, got you.