kluang

http://www.examiner.com/article/15-s...nited-states-1

My suggestion. Keep new York and Florida. get rid of the others

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kael03

They can try, it won't happen.

Numinous

Only morons would want to secede a country in a time of financial turmoil. The chances of ending up poorer if not broke are too high for any reasonable person wanting to secede.

Also, so what if Texas would be the 15th largest economy in the world? Italy is the 8th and Spain the 12th and that doesn't help their situation in the least and they at least have the Euro. Texas would need a new currency that could be similar to the dollar at the start but then things like inflation, exports/imports balance and the fact that stock exchange markets are as fickle as a teenager could make or break Texas' economy. If I were Texas, I'd wait for global economy to get back on its feet before even thinking of secession.

If you're wandering why I only talk about Texas it's because it's the only state with any chance of actually seceding. All the other states would only have any chance if Texas seceded first.

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ACt

Yeah... we call them Quebecers.

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It's amazing to me that, unlike in the real world, people on the internet will wear "everyone thinks I'm a moron" as a badge of honour.

manta

Confederates... lol

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jekyl_hyde

That's actually a really bad idea kluang. If you look at it economically, and which states contribute to the GDP through manufacturing means and not through the financial sector (investing and big banks), you would want to keep the rest of the states and get rid of New York and Florida.

Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, Georiga, Alabama, and Kentucky have the largest non-union workforces in the manufacturing sector (95% of all of your foreign car manufacturers are located in these states as well as their suppliers).

I've always heard rumors about the Cascadia states (including the northern part of Idaho and part of Montana) threatening to file petition to secede. What baffles me is that New Jersey and New York are in this list. What doesn't surprise me is that this happens after every election. I remember during 2004 after the Bush/Kerry election, there were petitions going through the colleges in MS to have the state secede by the local Democrat student groups. Don't know to which states this notion expanded to, but it's not surprising.

ACt

Reading more... they need 25,000 signatures for the petition to be looked at by the government. The population of Texas is 25 and half million. So less than 0.1% of the population can try and push for a decision on separating from the nation? That seems... wrong.

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It's amazing to me that, unlike in the real world, people on the internet will wear "everyone thinks I'm a moron" as a badge of honour.

kluang

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...nment/BmdWCP8B

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Numinous

Hold your horses there, j_h, it's not because they have a good labor power than it'll suddenly make those states more desirable for the US than the others. Let's take this case by case.

Alabama:

• Public debt of 60.4 billions
• Tax net revenue of -23.7 billions
• GDP of 174.4 billions

Colorado:

• Public debt of 80.4 billions
• Tax net revenue of +10.5 billions
• GDP of 259.7 billions

Florida:

• Public debt of 139.1 billions
• Tax net revenue of -10.6 billions
• GDP of 754.0 billions

Georgia:

• Public debt of 97.5 billions
• Tax net revenue of +4.1 billions
• GDP of 403.1 billions

Indiana:

• Public debt of 38.7 billions
• Tax net revenue of -4.6 billions
• GDP of 267.6 billions

Kentucky:

• Public debt of 63.2 billions
• Tax net revenue of -12.8 billions
• GDP of 161.4 billions

Louisiana:

• Public debt of 63.0 billions
• Tax net revenue of -0.9 billions
• GDP of 213.6 billions

Mississippi:

• Public debt of 38.2 billions
• Tax net revenue of -19.8 billions
• GDP of 98.9 billions

Montana:

• Public debt of 9.5 billions
• Tax net revenue of -4.0 billions
• GDP of 37.2 billions

New Jersey:

• Public debt of 281.5 billions
• Tax net revenue of +57.8 billions
• GDP of 497.0 billions

New York:

• Public debt of 305.3 billions
• Tax net revenue of +86.8 billions
• GDP of 1156.5 billions

North Carolina:

• Public debt of 97.4 billions
• Tax net revenue of +10.0 billions
• GDP of 407.4 billions

North Dakota:

• Public debt of 6.3 billions
• Tax net revenue of -3.1 billions
• GDP of 33.4 billions

Oregon:

• Public debt of 58.0 billions
• Tax net revenue of -1.8 billions
• GDP of 168.9 billions

Texas:

• Public debt of 282.6 billions
• Tax net revenue of 53.4 billions
• GDP of 1307.4 billions

If the US needed to get rid of states to balance finances, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi would be on the top of the list, while New York, North Carolina and Texas would be on the bottom.




Considering secession petitions are barking since the Civil War, I'm not surprised either.

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jekyl_hyde

I understand what you're saying about the different states and their related debts and the contributions they make to the GDP. Take this into acct. Two of the three states you mentioned are the hardest hit states during the hurricane seasons, which over 75% of that debt comes from. Also, the majority of each state's contribution to the national GDP is not based on the financial sector nor real estate. It comes from industry, which is what put the U.S.A. as the number 1 economy way back when, and is the leading reason why China is about to overtake the U.S.A., if they haven't already.

Without going into a diatribe about the fallacies of the great country that I live in and am proud to be a citizen in, our leaders (not just the political ones) have decided to place the vast majority of their eggs into the information and intelligence proprieties. There is still a small sector of industry, hugely comprised of the auto, air, and defense sectors. Meanwhile, China has industry as being a huge factor of it's GDP, while India has a high information and intellgence sector, but also has an outlandish (customer) service sector. I also know that India has a growing industry sector, but to my knowledge, it is nowhere near the level of China or the U.S.

@ACt
Also, something is not adding up about that list. I just scrolled up and down and noticed that all of the states listed were on the same petition. The majority of the names that I actually read (not glanced at) where from TX, but I did notice that a few were from Alabama and Louisiana that I actually read.

This looks like a load of "crock" to put it nicely.

Numinous

First of all, blaming the hurricane season for the debt is skewed at best considering the three less desirable states I mentioned have debts related to hurricanes which represent 3% of Alabama's debt, 9% of Kentucky's and 8% of Mississippi's. The real debt from those states come from pensions (72% of Alabama's, 62% of Kentucky's and 56% of Mississippi's). You could say some of that pension debt is a byproduct of the hurricanes, but it's nigh impossible to trace the exact effect.

Second, how is the source of debt of any relevancy when we're dealing with hard, cold numbers? No matter the source, the reality is that Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi are the least desirable of the states wanting to secede and would probably fuck themselves if they were successful.

Sorry if this question sounds similar to the previous, but how's the source of GDP of any relevancy to what's being said? Again with actual facts, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi represent 2.99% of the US' GDP while Florida and New York, states you said would be preferable to kick off, represent 12.88% of the national GDP.

Actually, US' economy slip and China's rise is NOT about which sector is being favored in the GDP, is from what measures the governments made. 40% of China's GDP comes from public investments and 45% from savings vs the US' 15% and 12% respectively. India also has similar figures to China, 36% on investments and 33% on savings.

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jekyl_hyde

@Num
I started to respond, and realized that my response was over the allotted 10,000 characters, so I'm simply going to say this. The source of the debts is relevant, because it shows which states do a better job of handling their budgets.

As far as the GDP is concerned, it pertains to tangibleness. The manufacturing sector is tangible to the layman (in a democratic, capitalistic state), even if it is only minuscale. Real estate is tangible usually to the uber-rich. Meanwhile, intellectual property is never tangible.

Look at Greece, and then look at the U.S. In the past, real estate was a huge factor with the U.S.'s GDP. It has been decreasing ever since the housing bubble burst. Why? During the housing bubble, real estate became tangible to the layman. So much so, that many laymen over-exerted themselves and bought 2nd homes and investment properties. Once the housing bubble popped, that tangibleness was gone, and those that over-exerted themselves... well, we all know how they fared.

kael03

Then Michigan should be one of the first states to go. We are horrible at budget balancing to the point the state government actually shut the state down for a day.

Numinous

And that includes preventive measures against natural disasters. It may sound cold-hearted, but crying over debt due to natural disasters isn't above crying for any other kind of debt, considering Japan is a prime example of a country who does proper prevention and very rarely needs help to patch things up. On the other hand, states like Alabama and Mississippi could do WAY better at hurricane damage prevention, like promoting better house foundations, city planning to better manage flood damage, make state-wise plans to make people live in the interior while having a job in the coastline by making highroads and public transportation more dynamic, among many other possible measures. So yes, even if the debt was from natural disasters, it could be managed in the same manner other states manage traffic jams.

You sound like only industry, real estate and intelligence exist. What about agriculture, tourism, restaurants and local commerce, are they not tangible to the layman? And they do not belong to the industry sector, but to the agriculture and services sectors. Again, the problem with the US isn't in what sector it's betting on, it's the lack of significant investment and savings by the government.

While that's true, the problem is bigger than that: the US relies far too much on the consumption revenue (30% vs China's 15%). And the stock markets are living proof of how stable the consumption revenue is, which is not much. I'm not saying that the US should penalize their capitalist habits, only that it should make sure that more stable incomes for GDP are prioritized.

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jekyl_hyde

It's not cold-hearted at all. However relating traffic jams to natural disasters as such is a bit inept. In a perfect world, I know of several civil engineers that have met with local and state gov't officials in both LA and MS about the measures that you hinted at as far as possible preventive measures for hurricanes go. The big problem there is insurance and costs. A small (land-wise) country like Japan is able to afford those measures because of their dense population. States like AL, LA, and MS are not that heavily populated, not even on the coast.

These factors were a huge part of my response, which in summing it up... somewhere between the Korean and Vietnam wars, the U.S. stopped relying so heavily on agriculture as an export, which is what made ag such a viable commodity towards the GDP before then. I'm guessing that just like manufacturing, cheaper labor is where the farms went. Tourism has been on the decline prior to 9/11 for obvious reasons as well as economic reasons (restaurants and local commerce fall under tourism in the tax code).

Completely agree on the bolded. It's safe money. Among investors, during the time leading up to the TARP funds, many investors were looking to close out their low risk investments and put it in low-return savings and CDs (I worked for a military bank). They were leaving returns of 4-6% to accounts that got only 2% APY, just to eliminate the risk. I remember one guy (retired colonel... colonels are always the worst attitude guys) cussing me out because of the low interest rate, but when I told him there was no way he would lose any money, he finally shut up. The guy opened up about 20 CDs that day totaling almost 1.5 million.

Anyways, my point is, tangibleness has a strong correlation to stability. Tourism is tangible, but not as strong as manufacturing and distribution.

And also, to clear this up for anyone, intellectual property has proven to be wonderful and magnificent on the micro level when in regards to a nation's GDP. Not so much on the macro level.