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02-03-2010, 06:59 PM   #601
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Fayrra This is a fallacious argument. It matters not whether Naruto is real, a "most likely" logical probability can still be formed, just not using the same medium as if it were a real person that you are trying evaluate said probability on. Here's our question, 'Which is more probable, Naruto being Homo, Hetero or Bi?' (I'm limiting it to those sexualities for now). We simplify this to: 'Which is more probable, Kishimoto choosing Naruto to be Homo, Hetero, or Bi?' The ability to form a probability is there, because Kishimoto's decision is real and can be predicted. Keep reading; If it doesn't make any sense that means he isn't using logic, which is fine. But when you form a probability, you use logic. If Kishimoto is dropping hints that Naruto's gay, even more so that he isn't straight, and let's also say that we know Kishimoto has lots of gay friends, then that means it is more logical to assume and create a probability of Kishimoto making him gay. And if Naruto turns out straight it means Kishimoto wasn't being logical and consistent with his character in the story, of which-like I said, is fine. However, it still doesn't change the fact that the chance of him choosing Homo over Hetero was more high based on what we had perceived and knew. All it shows is that Kishimoto is illogical. =/ Yes, you can. Yes, you can. lol. Actually, if you think about it, saying it is a 50/50 chance is basing a probability on what the author might do anyway. Not necessarily. It's not, "If he wants him to be gay, he'll be gay", but rather, "If he makes him gay, he'll be gay" After all, not everyone is as awesome as you and always does what they want. If God wanted you to die, you might die, then. Doesn't change the fact that based on what we have perceived, God is normally a nice "thing" who doesn't always do what he wants. Get it? It's more logical to assume that God wouldn't kill you then, based on what we have seen. Here's another analogy, Let's say you always see a guy run by your house every morning. He then normally stops at this point and takes a piss. But he doesn't always take a piss. Only majority of the time. You can then say that it is more logical to assume (based on the probability of him taking a piss at that spot), that he will take a piss again the next time you see him run by. It doesn't mean he will take a piss, he can do whatever the fuck he wants, right? It's his 50/50 percent choice, right? Just like Kishimoto can do whatever the fuck he wants. It still doesn't change the fact that you can form a logical probability on the chance of him doing it. Also, I'm obviously not saying that it is more logical for Naruto to be gay or vice versa, just that it is possible for you to predict it based on a "more chance of happening" probability. You just need to right proofs for it. You can basically put a probability on anything, real or not.
I hate to do this, but this entire thing here is basically just arguing semantics. Which is, unfortunately, usually the case when ever you debate it seems. = /

I've already addressed most of this already in the thread. I said "based on the knowledge available to us," when describing this particular situation. Unless you're privy to some information the rest of us aren't aware of in regards to Kishimoto's intentions regarding Naruto's sexual orientation, or can provide some evidence that would support the claim that one orientation is more probable than the others, then you're not really arguing against anything I've said.

If you're just giving me a heads up on how probabilities work in general, however, then okay. Thanks, I suppose. I was kinda just talking about this particular subject though. And I was already pretty familiar with the concepts too. But, still, I appreciate the effort?

Quote:
 Yeah, but the purpose of Naruto doing the technique is to gain attention. Even though the purpose of the technique itself, may be to turn on men. It's like the whole "end justifies the means" thing. Sure, you're killing a whole bunch of people, but in the end, it's to save even more people. If you think about it, he's transforming for a reason other than turning on men (attention or a distraction). Just like the "you" in my sentence above, is killing people for a reason other than exterminating the human race. Quite the opposite actually.
I know. I've already addressed this too with the stripper analogy I used, remember? She does it to make money. Doesn't change the fact that stripping itself is done to sexually arouse the patron.

Quote:
 All I'm saying is, it's the meaning behind the action that really matters, rather than what the action itself apparently accomplishes.
Okay. Except, you didn't really show that the action itself doesn't matter. I'm perfectly willing to take both into account. Preforming techniques designed to sexually arouse men for attention or to be used as a distraction still isn't typical heterosexual behavior. There is a difference between trying to make a guy bust a load in his pants to distract him and throwing a smoke bomb to distract him. Saying the technique used doesn't matter wouldn't make much sense.
Quote:
 Also, why would you ask if it is typical heterosexual behavior? Typical implies "in our real world" when, like you already stated, this is in fiction. You shouldn't judge typical heterosexual behavior in our world with Naruto's own.
The argument about it being fiction was a counter-argument against something stupid that was said by some moron earlier (I don't feel like scrolling up and looking as to what exactly it was.) It's totally true and valid, of course. But it renders any discussion and prediction about future events in the manga completely pointless.

This argument is simply for the sake of discussion, where evidence can be presented to justify a stance on the matter of Naruto's sexual orientation. As for what is considered heterosexual and homosexual behavior in the Narutoverse, again, for the sake of discussion one would assume they're the same as in our universe.

You wouldn't apply that to things that have been shown to be different from our universe, of course. Like the Narutoverse is full of fucking ninja that can shoot fire out of their mouths and crazy shit like that. And you can't use real world population statistics, because Narutoverse world has already been shown to be an entirely different place. Shit like that.

Also, I don't really like arguing semantics all the damn time. I was nice to you this time because I just remembered you like fucking METAL GEAR SOLID HOLY FUCK MANLY SHIT, so you can't be all that big of a fag. I really do want to give you a chance, man. But you seriously have to stop with that shit. Seriously.

 02-03-2010, 07:05 PM #602 Jaxon CHEEKI BREEKI     Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 4,393 Thanks: 3,572 Thanked 12,454 Times in 3,658 Posts Re: Naruto's Homosexuality No, you can try to predict Kishimoto's decision, but not with any degree of accuracy. You do not know the man. You have no idea how his thought processes work. The most accurate prediction that can be made is drawn simply on the lines of option. Gay, Straight, or Bisexual. Therefore, 33.333 % rec. I've already said this. This is the most accurate logic that can be applied, since this is a person we know nothing about. I've already said this.
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02-03-2010, 07:27 PM   #603
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Miburo This argument is simply for the sake of discussion, where evidence can be presented to justify a stance on the matter of Naruto's sexual orientation. As for what is considered heterosexual and homosexual behavior in the Narutoverse, again, for the sake of discussion one would assume they're the same as in our universe. You wouldn't apply that to things that have been shown to be different from our universe, of course. Like the Narutoverse is full of fucking ninja that can shoot fire out of their mouths and crazy shit like that. And you can't use real world population statistics, because Narutoverse world has already been shown to be an entirely different place. Shit like that.
Oh, okay.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Miburo Also, I don't really like arguing semantics all the damn time. I was nice to you this time because I just remembered you like fucking METAL GEAR SOLID HOLY FUCK MANLY SHIT, so you can't be all that big of a fag. I really do want to give you a chance, man. But you seriously have to stop with that shit. Seriously.
lol. Well, Metal Gear Solid is fucking awesome. However, rather manly preferences is probably our ownly common ground. Intelligence, isn't.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jaxon No, you can try to predict Kishimoto's decision, but not with any degree of accuracy. You do not know the man. You have no idea how his thought processes work. The most accurate prediction that can be made is drawn simply on the lines of option. Gay, Straight, or Bisexual. Therefore, 33.333 % rec. I've already said this. This is the most accurate logic that can be applied, since this is a person we know nothing about. I've already said this.
Actually, yeah, Miburo's right. I basically contributed to the topic in no way and only went into it blindsighted by my urge to argue against you.

You can tell by me first saying "This is a fallacious argument" implying that there was something wrong with your argument itself, even though your argument only stated that they couldn't do it without the right proofs. And then me saying "you just need the right proofs for it." Implying that the reason why there's something wrong with your argument, is because you can do it with the right proofs. Proofs that they didn't have. <-- Which was your argument in the first place.

You never once denied that it was impossible to slap a probability onto it, but rather, we can't because we don't know. Fucking duh. >_<

lol. I do have a problem with semantics.
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 02-03-2010, 08:12 PM #604 superninja ANBU   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,841 Thanks: 190 Thanked 690 Times in 553 Posts Re: Naruto's Homosexuality http://www.onemanga.com/Naruto/3/17/ I am so sorry to bring this evidence back up. But let's discuss this page of Naruto manga for a moment shall we, since it has relevance to the topic. My premise is Naruto is hetero. Naruto is hetero therefore 1) Naruto takes an interest in Sakura because he is becoming romantically interested in girls 2) that leads to him impersonating Sasuke to meet with Sakura so he can try to trick her into liking him (Naruto) 3) they have a little chat and Sakura tells him she likes him and tries to kiss, that leads to Naruto blushing because he is excited and Naruto realizes why he likes her so much Now try to interpret these events that happened in manga and are connected with the page I linked, but offer your different explanation while defending a different premise, that Naruto is gay. I assure you that such interpretations will have to be more complex and therefore less likely to be true. __________________ The great off panel war has begun...also called the war of one panel because most fights started and ended in one panel. Also Kin and Gin as substitute for kyuubi chakra (the greatest amount of chakra in Naruto world) is something Kishi pulled out of his ass. I lost major respect. It would be like near the end of LOTR there happens to be another slightly weaker ring and Sauron is like "that will do". It kind of shits on everything established up to that point. It kind of insults my intelligence.
02-03-2010, 09:08 PM   #605
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by superninja http://www.onemanga.com/Naruto/3/17/ I am so sorry to bring this evidence back up. But let's discuss this page of Naruto manga for a moment shall we, since it has relevance to the topic. My premise is Naruto is hetero. Naruto is hetero therefore 1) Naruto takes an interest in Sakura because he is becoming romantically interested in girls 2) that leads to him impersonating Sasuke to meet with Sakura so he can try to trick her into liking him (Naruto) 3) they have a little chat and Sakura tells him she likes him and tries to kiss, that leads to Naruto blushing because he is excited and Naruto realizes why he likes her so much
I really didn't want to get involved in this thread, but I just wanted to point out in RL that:

1) A large majority of gays start out dating the opposite sex when they're younger (i.e. high school)
2) Along with #1, this period is also an age of "denial" in which the person strives to convince (sometimes overly) everyone else that he is interested in the opposite sex.
3) Most don't come out until College-era (18+ish) due to potentially life threatening and harsh family reactions

=> Naruto was still young, and doesn't understand the nature of his feelings...yet
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02-03-2010, 09:22 PM   #606
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by superninja My premise is Naruto is hetero.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Wikipedia Begging the question (or petitio principii, "assuming the initial point") is a logical fallacy in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in the premise.
Uhhh....you can't argue that naruto is a heterosexual with a premise stating naruto his heterosexual. At least not logically, anyway...

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02-03-2010, 09:28 PM   #607
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KatrinaKatt I really didn't want to get involved in this thread, but I just wanted to point out in RL that: 1) A large majority of gays start out dating the opposite sex when they're younger (i.e. high school) 2) Along with #1, this period is also an age of "denial" in which the person strives to convince (sometimes overly) everyone else that he is interested in the opposite sex. 3) Most don't come out until College-era (18+ish) due to potentially life threatening and harsh family reactions => Naruto was still young, and doesn't understand the nature of his feelings...yet
KatrinaKatt, I value your input on these possibilities and they are useful facts I didn't know, but this was designed for Miburo so I can counter his arguments lol.
You gave an option of Naruto being gay and faking his romantic interest in Sakura and also pointed out that Naruto was young at that time and didn't know the nature of his feelings.

Naruto said: "now I understand why I like Sakura so much" which means he liked her prior to their meeting but he didn't know why. Feelings you don't fake. You can lie to the others about how you feel, but would you lie to yourself?
If you go for that option and say that Naruto was subconsciously lying to himself then your theory becomes more complex.
The more complex your (Miburo's) theory becomes, the less chance it is accurate.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Miburo Uhhh....you can't argue that naruto is a heterosexual with a premise stating naruto his heterosexual. At least not logically, anyway...
I am discussing probabilities now, I start with that premise, a premise that gives a most simple explanation to the three events I stated.
You start with your premise, a premise that will result in a complex explanation of those events.
Logically, my premise has greater chances of being true then yours.
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The great off panel war has begun...also called the war of one panel because most fights started and ended in one panel.

Also Kin and Gin as substitute for kyuubi chakra (the greatest amount of chakra in Naruto world) is something Kishi pulled out of his ass. I lost major respect. It would be like near the end of LOTR there happens to be another slightly weaker ring and Sauron is like "that will do". It kind of shits on everything established up to that point. It kind of insults my intelligence.

Last edited by superninja; 02-03-2010 at 09:31 PM.

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02-03-2010, 10:19 PM   #608
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 I am discussing probabilities now, I start with that premise, a premise that gives a most simple explanation to the three events I stated. You start with your premise, a premise that will result in a complex explanation of those events. Logically, my premise has greater chances of being true then yours.
Occam's razor is a theory, not logic. Gb2 school, scrub.

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02-03-2010, 10:34 PM   #609
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by superninja You gave an option of Naruto being gay and faking his romantic interest in Sakura and also pointed out that Naruto was young at that time and didn't know the nature of his feelings.
I never said he was faking anything. That would be counter-productive to my stance, since that would require him displaying romantic feelings in the first place. Faked or otherwise. He's never done that.

Quote:
 Naruto said: "now I understand why I like Sakura so much" which means he liked her prior to their meeting but he didn't know why. Feelings you don't fake. You can lie to the others about how you feel, but would you lie to yourself? If you go for that option and say that Naruto was subconsciously lying to himself then your theory becomes more complex. The more complex your (Miburo's) theory becomes, the less chance it is accurate.
That last part about complexity. You're trying to apply the logical principle of Occam's Razor. Unfortunately (For you!), you're doing it wrong. Though, it is a common mistake, so I won't be a dick about it and just explain shit to you instead.

You have to make sure you're perceiving the meaning behind the term complexity when applying that principle. In reality, your theory is actually the more complex of the two (Mine is just the same as yours. He didn't know why he liked Sakura until that point. Except he is realizing that he likes her because she shares a common trait with him, as was stated directly prior to that statement of his. Not because he's sexually attracted to girls.). Your theory relies on subtle hints (like blushing and sweating) to prove a physical attraction, which can easily be misconstrued with something like anxiety. Not to mention you're basing sexual preference off attraction of a preteen girl who still possesses an androgynous body type. Your theory adds tons of variables to the mix. Mine relies on the actual text on the page and makes no further assumptions other than what is stated. Mine is the less complex theory of the two.

Edit: You even say "He liked her prior, but didn't know why." I'm sure he realized she was a girl prior to that instance. He didn't, however, realize she shared the trait of wanting acceptance though. This only further helps my case. Your stance...not so much.

Quote:
 I am discussing probabilities now, I start with that premise, a premise that gives a most simple explanation to the three events I stated. You start with your premise, a premise that will result in a complex explanation of those events. Logically, my premise has greater chances of being true then yours.
You sure you know what a premise even is there, boss?

You're trying to prove that Naruto is heterosexual, or that he is more likely to be heterosexual. That means you want to create an argument which the conclusion is that Naruto is/most likely is heterosexual.

Premises are what you use to prove that conclusion. Your premises must be true, and your argument must be valid. "Naruto is a heterosexual" cannot be one of your premises, because that is the conclusion you're trying to prove. If you use it as a premise as well, then you're creating a logically fallacious argument. Which is a fancy way of saying your argument sucks balls.

You should really google some of this stuff, dude.

02-04-2010, 04:45 AM   #610
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jaxon Occam's razor is a theory, not logic. Gb2 school, scrub.
A theory that makes sense.
Let's say we have events with a certain probability of happening.
If my interpretation has three such events and yours let's say four or five it is likely that my interpretation is more probable. If you understand what I'm saying here. This can be even proved mathematically so what's the deal? The only problem is we can't give an exact number of how probable one event is. But the more events you have in your theory the less probable it is.

Quote:
 You even say "He liked her prior, but didn't know why." I'm sure he realized she was a girl prior to that instance. He didn't, however, realize she shared the trait of wanting acceptance though. This only further helps my case. Your stance...not so much.
What's up with that, really? He likes her prior to their meeting, he doesn't understand why, but he did notice she was a girl of course.
He "realizes why he likes her so much". So much. He likes her more than he likes others. Why is that? It has nothing to do with their common trait of wanting acceptance since he didn't know that before their meeting. What he did know is that she's a girl.

Quote:
 Premises are what you use to prove that conclusion. Your premises must be true, and your argument must be valid.
I really don't know what the premises are but I like the fancy sound of it.

For the sake of the argument, let's assume that "Naruto is hetero" is a premise in this particular case and see what result we get. I separated the events that happened from the conclusions that my premise (Naruto is hetero) leads to.
I wanted you to do the same and see for yourself how unlikely a different premise (that Naruto is gay) will look once put on paper.
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The great off panel war has begun...also called the war of one panel because most fights started and ended in one panel.

Also Kin and Gin as substitute for kyuubi chakra (the greatest amount of chakra in Naruto world) is something Kishi pulled out of his ass. I lost major respect. It would be like near the end of LOTR there happens to be another slightly weaker ring and Sauron is like "that will do". It kind of shits on everything established up to that point. It kind of insults my intelligence.

Last edited by superninja; 02-04-2010 at 04:59 AM.

02-04-2010, 02:41 PM   #611
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by superninja A theory that makes sense. Let's say we have events with a certain probability of happening. If my interpretation has three such events and yours let's say four or five it is likely that my interpretation is more probable. If you understand what I'm saying here. This can be even proved mathematically so what's the deal? The only problem is we can't give an exact number of how probable one event is. But the more events you have in your theory the less probable it is.
I agree that Occam's Razor is a valid logical principle, and an extremely useful one as well that is used in almost all fields of science (logic is a science). People just use it completely wrong or don't understand it, a lot.

For example, you're misrepresenting it pretty hardcore. Let's say you come home with two friends and all your shit is missing and the back door is kicked in. Your one friend says that a group of people probably waited till no one was home at your house, broke in through the back door, and then stole took all your stuff. Your other friend says "A wizard did it." Three events vs. one event. By your definition of how Occam's Razor works, a wizard doing it would be the more probable theory.

People try using Occam's Razor in the Evolution vs. God Did It debate too in the same fashion. They, like you, are using it wrong. It doesn't matter how many events there are. What matters is that your theory has the least amount of assumptions, pretty much. It's not a principle that boils down to nothing but Simplicity > complexity. Doesn't work like that.

tl;dr- You're doing it wrong.

Quote:
 What's up with that, really? He likes her prior to their meeting, he doesn't understand why, but he did notice she was a girl of course. He "realizes why he likes her so much". So much. He likes her more than he likes others. Why is that? It has nothing to do with their common trait of wanting acceptance since he didn't know that before their meeting. What he did know is that she's a girl.
I really don't want to be mean to you, since you're not being a douche like those other guys, but I don't really know how to explain to you about how to read without sounding condescending as fuck.

I guess I just break down the sentence for you and explain what it means. Uh...Alright, "he likes her so much" means that he likes her a lot, that is correct. So he's "realizing why" he likes her a lot. Meaning before she said that shit about acceptance he didn't realize why he liked her a lot. He liked her a lot beforehand, yes. But he didn't know why. Now he does: Because she just wants to be accepted, just like him. Get it?

Jesus, this is retarded.

Quote:
 I really don't know what the premises are but I like the fancy sound of it. For the sake of the argument, let's assume that "Naruto is hetero" is a premise in this particular case and see what result we get. I separated the events that happened from the conclusions that my premise (Naruto is hetero) leads to. I wanted you to do the same and see for yourself how unlikely a different premise (that Naruto is gay) will look once put on paper.
I figured. >_>

Okay, so you want me to use "Naruto is a fag" as a premise, and for the sake of argument you're going to assume that premise is true...and you want me to go from there showing that...naruto is a fag?

Okay.

Premise:

-Naruto is a fag.

Okay, done. I don't need to even say anything else, since the only thing I was going for is already being assumed to be true.

Again, jesus fuck. I don't even. I mean. What the fuck. Maybe it's because you're trying to use terminology you don't understand, and it's fucking me up. I really don't know what the fuck you're even saying here. Seriously. I think you might be saying something like "Let's say Naruto is gay...so how does that work out?" Or some shit. But I don't get what you want me to say. I guess he's going to want to have some buttsex with some dudes or some shit? I dunno. I mean, come on man. What the fuck.

What the fuck.

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02-04-2010, 04:01 PM   #612
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Miburo I agree that Occam's Razor is a valid logical principle, and an extremely useful one as well that is used in almost all fields of science (logic is a science). People just use it completely wrong or don't understand it, a lot. For example, you're misrepresenting it pretty hardcore. Let's say you come home with two friends and all your shit is missing and the back door is kicked in. Your one friend says that a group of people probably waited till no one was home at your house, broke in through the back door, and then stole took all your stuff. Your other friend says "A wizard did it." Three events vs. one event. By your definition of how Occam's Razor works, a wizard doing it would be the more probable theory.
No, I am not misinterpreting the principles of "Ocam's razor" although I was maybe too vague in my description of it. The events that have a chance of happening in a theory. A chance of happening. To estimate that chance you need to evaluate the alternatives to that event.
If some events have equal chances of happening, then a theory with a smaller number of such events is more probable than a theory with a larger number of such events.
In your example (you must think I am some moron don't you?) you gave one event with almost zero chances of happening opposed to couple of events with a greater probability of happening plus those events are chained meaning one event causes the other so again the probabilities are greater than unchained events.
I am tired of discussing the basics of how logic works with you but I hope we all learned something today.
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The great off panel war has begun...also called the war of one panel because most fights started and ended in one panel.

Also Kin and Gin as substitute for kyuubi chakra (the greatest amount of chakra in Naruto world) is something Kishi pulled out of his ass. I lost major respect. It would be like near the end of LOTR there happens to be another slightly weaker ring and Sauron is like "that will do". It kind of shits on everything established up to that point. It kind of insults my intelligence.

02-04-2010, 07:53 PM   #613
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by superninja No, I am not misinterpreting the principles of "Ocam's razor" although I was maybe too vague in my description of it. The events that have a chance of happening in a theory. A chance of happening. To estimate that chance you need to evaluate the alternatives to that event. If some events have equal chances of happening, then a theory with a smaller number of such events is more probable than a theory with a larger number of such events. In your example (you must think I am some moron don't you?) you gave one event with almost zero chances of happening opposed to couple of events with a greater probability of happening plus those events are chained meaning one event causes the other so again the probabilities are greater than unchained events. I am tired of discussing the basics of how logic works with you but I hope we all learned something today.
It still has absolutely nothing to do with "number of events." Nothing. None. Nada. The theory of evolution is infinitely more complex and has many, many more "number of events" than that of intelligent design. Yet the theory of evolution is the more logical theory. That's because it relies on less assumptions and is more well-supported by credible evidence.

But yeah, it is pretty tiring to have to continually explain how basic logic works to people in this thread. I do hope they learned something though. I already knew how this shit works, no worries on my end. Now stay on topic, bro. I don't think anyone needs lessons on logic from the guy who is all like "lol premise wut begging the question huh circular reasoning whatthe.. sup wanna debate lolololol leaving out the 't' in perfect is fucking deep" the entire time he was posting in this thread. Holy fuck.

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 02-04-2010, 08:31 PM #614 TheSixthHokage S-Ranked Shinobi     Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Hokage's Office Posts: 2,676 Thanks: 952 Thanked 1,017 Times in 587 Posts Re: Naruto's Homosexuality I believe Naruto is heterosexual. But until we see him actually doing anything with the opposite sex, we have no proof. I've always wondered if Sasuke was gay, a lot more than Naruto. Naruto could never get any, even if he wanted it, Sasuke has it thrown at him and he ignores it. He sounds like an asexual, Hitler-type of shinobi. __________________
02-05-2010, 04:47 AM   #615
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Re: Naruto's Homosexuality

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Miburo It still has absolutely nothing to do with "number of events." Nothing. None. Nada.
Actually yes it does. In general the more events your theory has (and I am talking about theoretical events with their chance of happening not events that happened) the less likely it is true. In mathematics you would get the sum of probability by multiplying the probabilities of each event your theory has.

But if you have evidence for a possible event, or the events are chained meaning that one event leads to another event then probabilities are greater then they would be if you have no evidence and events are unconnected.

Also, let me go back to your "wizard did it with magic" example.
You one day notice all your stuff gone. With no evidence, you conclude "wizard did it".
This looks like a one event, but it is in fact a complex theory. First, you conclude that magic exists (one event), then you conclude there are in fact wizards (second event), then you conclude a wizard would have the need or motive to take your stuff (third event) and all that with practically no evidence. At the same time you know that thieves exist, you know that thieves have a motive to take your stuff, saying that "thieves did it" is a less number of events.
But lets say you explore the scene of the crime and find the spellbook on the floor, you find a wizard hat, you find a magic circle drawn..Then that theory "wizard did it" starts to have a greater chance of being true.

Also on topic, saying that Naruto is gay but he has subconsciously convinced himself that he is straight is also a complex theory although it looks like a one event.
So why did Naruto like Sakura so much when he didn't know anything about her except the fact that she's a girl?
__________________
The great off panel war has begun...also called the war of one panel because most fights started and ended in one panel.

Also Kin and Gin as substitute for kyuubi chakra (the greatest amount of chakra in Naruto world) is something Kishi pulled out of his ass. I lost major respect. It would be like near the end of LOTR there happens to be another slightly weaker ring and Sauron is like "that will do". It kind of shits on everything established up to that point. It kind of insults my intelligence.

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