People got out to the box office in droves this weekend. …See what I did there? Yes, Get Out stormed the cinema and decimated expectations to the tune of $30m+. That might have to do with it being a damn great movie (my review) and doing a fantastic job on the marketing side. The audiences seem to be digging it as well so this could be the rare horror movie that sticks around for a while. I don’t expect it to do Split numbers, but this is an undeniable win for original horror.
Not so successful were the other newcomers. Rock Dog did the best of the bunch but even that’s being kind. And it looks like nearly no one went out to see whatever Collide was. This was a weekend for Get Out and Get Out only. This horror fan is happy to leave it like that.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense.
Last Week:
Get Out
My Guess: $18,000,000
Actual: $30,524,435
Result: I love when I’m wrong like this. No one saw such a massive win coming. This is cause for serious celebration.
Collide
My Guess: $7,000,000
Actual: $1,539,590
Result: Ouch! I was hoping this would get a few more adults in seats but it looks like Get Out stole any potential audience for this.
Rock Dog
My Guess: $2,000,000
Actual: $3,700,000
Result: A little more than I anticipated but still a flop.
This week:
Logan
Oh man, this one is hard to pin down. After the runaway success of Deadpool, do we go with super high expectations with Logan? It’s riding a great critical wave (my review) and has been offering something new to the superhero landscape. But this is a downer of a movie and a very violent one at that. Will word-of-mouth be a little less favorable on this? I’m going to shoot for the moon on Logan because I think it’s going to surprise a lot of people.
My guess: $70,000,000
Before I Fall
A YA Groundhog Day? And one with a fairly weak marketing push behind it? Putting this up against Logan doesn’t say a whole lot in terms of confidence. And I don’t know how popular the source material is, but it’s not part of a series and YA movies usually work if they have a big fan following. Is that the case here? Between Logan and a strong holdover for Get Out, I’m betting this one falls by the wayside.
My guess: $5,000,000
The Shack
These faith-based movies are always hard to pin down. This one is based on a pretty beloved book but the marketing has been fairly weak. Again, there are also a lot of strong holdovers to account for. Maybe this will break out like Miracles from Heaven or something, but I think the marketplace is just going to be too crowded.
My guess: $9,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
