Star Trek Beyond warped into the box office this weekend and provided the long-running series with the third best opening in the franchise’s history. Reviews have been phenomenal and it’s likely Star Trek Beyond will have some strong legs, performing like Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. It’s great to see Star Trek back on track in such a celebratory way.
Meanwhile, Lights Out had a strong opening that somehow managed to top Ice Age: Collision Course. Horror fans are definitely high-fiving each other over that one. The crowded market of animated kids films probably hurt Ice Age the most, and Lights Out‘s success can be attributed to a solid marketing campaign that pushed the simple concept hard.
A few tidbits from the box office numbers:
- The top five films of 2016 are either Disney properties or Marvel IPs. And we haven’t even gotten that new Star Wars movie yet. This is the amazing world we live in.
- Finding Dory crossed $460 million this weekend. It still has a while to go before it finally exits theaters, so a grand total that squeaks close to $500 million isn’t impossible.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain but that makes far too much sense. Fandom editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Last Week:
Star Trek Beyond
My Guess: $62,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $70,000,000
Actual: $59,600,000
Result: Another technical win for me this week, though the film couldn’t boldly go where our predictions went.
Ice Age: Collision Course
My Guess: $39,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $44,000,000
Actual: $21,000,000
Result: WOW. This is the lowest opening for the Ice Age franchise by a difference of $20 million. I think this series can finally be declared extinct.
Lights Out
My Guess: $11,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $20,000,000
Actual: $21,600,000
Result: With 2016 being a banner year for horror – and it’s only going to get better – I should have had more faith. Nick saw the light while I was stuck in the dark.
This week:
Jason Bourne
After a brief hiatus, Matt Damon returns to the franchise that turned him into an action superstar. The trailers look to be a soft reboot of sorts, so it’s likely this will rope in a wider audience than usual. The ad campaign has done a good job selling the stakes of this one, and Damon’s return is being treated as the event it should be. This one won’t hit huge, but it’s definitely going to make a significant dent.
My guess: $66,000,000
Nick’s guess: $57,000,000
Bad Moms
The obvious counter-programming of the week, Bad Moms is following quite a few raunchy comedies that have released this year. Are audiences going to feel a little burned out on the outrageous humor? The cast looks fun and the red band trailer got some decent attention on social media. The R-rating will probably hurt it a bit but this one could still surprise us.
My guess: $24,000,000
Nick’s guess: $18,000,000
Nerve
It’s unfortunate that Nerve has a really compelling premise that has been spoiled in all of the marketing. The movie undergoes an enormous tonal shift, and that would have been nice to see that happen in the movie instead of the trailers. There’s also a cheapness to the film’s look and audiences can usually pick up on that. Just look at Hardcore Henry. If the marketing had been better, this could have had a shot. But revealing the entire plot of the film is going to leave a lot of folks uninterested.
My guess: $6,000,000
Nick’s guess: $11,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
